Housing affordability shaping as much as be a prime problem within the 2021 federal election: Nanos

2021-08-20 21:05:00

As get together leaders shut out their first week of campaigning, Nanos Analysis’s Nik Nanos says it should not be stunning that inexpensive housing has change into a prime problem within the 2021 federal election.

Nanos stated on the newest episode of Development Line that the COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated a sizzling housing market, driving up the costs not just for these trying to buy a house, but additionally these attempting to hire, making a housing disaster throughout Canada.

“The truth is housing affordability impacts renters as a result of it impacts the worth of hire. It additionally impacts householders, as a result of it impacts the price of with the ability to get into the market,” Nanos stated.

In line with current polling finished by Nanos, 15 per cent of Canadians surveyed stated they’re anxious about whether or not they may have the ability to pay for his or her housing within the subsequent 30 days.

“Which may not sound like a giant quantity… however that is 4.9 million Canadians who’re anxious,” Nanos stated.

Polling from Nanos additionally studies that about 78 per cent of Canadians would “look kindly on any get together that had a concrete motion plan” to take care of inexpensive housing and homelessness.

New Democrat Chief Jagmeet Singh says his get together would construct 500,000 properties in an effort to make housing, together with rental costs, inexpensive for Canadians, whereas additionally implementing a 20 per cent overseas homebuyers’ tax.

Conservative Celebration Chief Erin O’Toole has promised to construct 1,000,000 properties in three years and lift limitations to overseas buyers, whereas Liberal Chief Justin Trudeau has promised municipal leaders federal backing and assets past the Liberals’ 10-year, multibillion-dollar nationwide housing technique launched in 2018-19.

Nanos famous that the events have acknowledged inexpensive housing as an necessary problem, particularly for millennial voters that leaders are working to win over.

“Millennials are more and more necessary a part of the citizens and numerically a giant a part of the citizens, regardless that they do not vote as a lot as their elder or older Canadian compatriots, so to talk,” Nanos stated.

Nevertheless, he acknowledged that the difficulty does “lower throughout all generations,” and can doubtless have an effect in key battleground ridings the place housing costs have change into unaffordable, together with in Vancouver and Toronto.


Housing wasn’t the one problem on the forefront of the federal election marketing campaign this week. Nanos stated entry to abortion was additionally within the highlight, and is a matter that has dogged each Conservative chief in earlier elections.

“The ‘a’ phrase normally comes up each single election firstly. Liberals are normally those that… put it on the desk,” Nanos stated. “It is like the usual Liberal entice — it is form of just like the machine of the warfare room.”

Nanos famous that former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper was “excellent” at responding to the difficulty.

“He simply mainly batted it out of the park and stated, ‘This is not about abortion, that is been determined’,” Nanos stated.

Former Conservative chief Andrew Sheer took a distinct method when pressed on abortion.

Scheer said he was personally in opposition to abortion, however {that a} authorities led by him wouldn’t ban the observe. Due to this, opposition leaders criticized him all through the 2019 federal election marketing campaign for not clearly speaking his place.

“Andrew Scheer waffled a bit on this, and consequently, he did not look excellent, and it took him a pair days to really absolutely reply and that turned a problem,” Nanos defined.

Nevertheless, Nanos says O’Toole has not been caught within the “identical abortion quagmire as Andrew Scheer.”

“He is come out firmly in favour of pro-choice, and so… from the attitude I consider common Canadians, this choice has been determined,” Nanos stated.

O’Toole stated on Thursday that he can each be pro-choice and struggle to guard the rights of health-care professionals who refuse to carry out a medical process for ethical or spiritual causes.

There may be at the moment no federal legislation on abortion that regulates the service and signifies physicians’ rights or outlines their obligations to refer sufferers to a colleague in the event that they gained’t present a service; that’s for the provinces to resolve.

Trudeau has since criticized O’Toole’s stance, whereas Singh accused the Conservatives of lacking the mark on this problem.

Regardless of this, Nanos stated O’Toole’s “definitive assertion” on being pro-choice exhibits voters that “there is not any want to speak about abortion” any additional, and has the Conservatives specializing in the subsequent problem within the marketing campaign.


Because the marketing campaign continues, Nanos stated every get together chief works to painting a sure picture of themselves to assist sway Canadian voters.

For Singh, that picture is considered one of being your “finest good friend,” in keeping with Nanos.

“[He’s] somebody that might be good to hang around with, somebody that you’d belief,” Nanos stated. “Very approachable, very open, very constructive, eager to make constructive change, and fairly likeable.”

Nanos famous that this has been Singh’s model since he began in politics and is a “good technique” because it’s how former NDP chief Jack Layton made his breakthrough within the 2011 federal election, main the NDP to probably the most profitable consequence within the get together’s historical past.

“It is a constructive, compelling model and it is a good model to construct a base,” Nanos stated.

On the subject of Inexperienced Chief Annamie Paul, Nanos stated she is “portraying herself as an genuine chief who’s enthusiastic about change.”

“I used to be fairly struck by the truth that she talked about, not simply the environmental disaster, however she talked about social justice, and he or she talked in regards to the economic system,” he stated.

Nanos stated Paul’s branding is extra akin to that of the European Inexperienced Celebration in France and Germany versus a “rabid environmentalist Inexperienced Celebration.”

“After I listened to her, it was clear that from an mental viewpoint, she was a part of a broader Inexperienced worldwide motion that is targeted on the surroundings, social justice, and a Inexperienced restoration,” Nanos stated.

He added that this positions her “fairly nicely” amongst millennial voters who’ve these points prime of thoughts.

Whereas Nanos says Bloc Quebecois Chief Yves-Francois Blanchet would be the “champion of Quebec,” he stated the province is a “key battleground” between the Bloc and the Liberals. Nevertheless, Nanos stated he additionally would not be shocked if Singh and O’Toole made some headway in Quebec this election.

Nanos stated O’Toole has positioned his get together as the one one with a viable technique to transition Canada out of financial havoc, with the get together having already launched its platform increasing on the pre-election guarantees it unveiled within the spring.

The doc encompasses a shiny, magazine-like cowl exhibiting O’Toole in an off-the-cuff T-shirt with a headline that reads “The person with a plan.”

Nanos famous that Canadians have not seen earlier Conservative leaders in such a fashion earlier than.

“He is breaking floor, he is attempting to point out that he is related,” Nanos stated.

O’Toole, who is definitely youthful than Trudeau, is attempting to point out voters that he is “not your father’s Conservative chief,” in keeping with Nanos.

Nanos stated his “man with a plan” slogan additionally refers back to the chief’s background within the Canadian Armed Forces.

“For anybody that has a beloved one which’s within the Canadian Armed Forces, they know that it is about planning. It is about being targeted, it is about being disciplined, it is about being prepared for the long run,” Nanos stated.

Nanos stated O’Toole is taking part in to each side together with his picture, exhibiting he could be fashionable whereas additionally being “mission oriented.”

On the subject of Trudeau, Nanos says his picture is the “most developed” out of the get together leaders and is one that’s primarily based on legacy developed from when his father, Pierre Trudeau, was in politics.

“He is constructed on his father’s legacy as a progressive fashionable pondering particular person, however for Justin Trudeau, mainly it is about his imaginative and prescient for fairness, range, inclusion, his imaginative and prescient on Indigenous reconciliation, his imaginative and prescient on the surroundings,” Nanos defined.

He stated Trudeau is attempting to painting himself not solely as the one who has led Canada for the final variety of years, however as “the chief of a broader progressive motion.”

“[He’s] not like his father’s get together chief; he’s the chief of a motion and that is how he tries to attach with voters,” Nanos stated.

The election version of Development Line publishes within the morning each Monday, Wednesday and Friday in the course of the marketing campaign.

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